Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
